Can Unprocessed Food Prices Really Be One of the Main Responsible Causes for not Achieving Inflation Targets in Turkey?

Pinar Göktaş

doi:10.22630/PRS.2016.16.4.103

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Opublikowane:

Dec 31, 2016

Numer

Tom 16 Nr 4 (2016)

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Articles

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Pinar Göktaş

Muğla Sıtkı Koçman University, Turkey

DOI: https://doi.org/10.22630/PRS.2016.16.4.103

Abstrakt

Parallel to international conjecture, as of 2006 food prices, particularly those of unprocessed foods, have displayed high levels of fluctuation and it is know that these fluctuations have increased in more recent years. In the explanations and reports issued by economic circles and fiscal authorities, it is frequently emphasized that fluctuations seen in food prices result in negative influences on inflation and particularly the fluctuations observed in unprocessed foods create serious uncertainties by making inflation forecasting quite difficult. In the current study, whether there is some kind of interaction between 2006:01-2016:03 inflation realizations in Turkey and food prices, processed and unprocessed food prices and uncertainties obtained by using GARCH-type volatility forecasting models was analyzed through VAR Granger causality tests.The findings obtained in the current study support the explanations of economic circles to a great extent.

Jak cytować

Göktaş, P. (2016). Can Unprocessed Food Prices Really Be One of the Main Responsible Causes for not Achieving Inflation Targets in Turkey?. Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW W Warszawie - Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, 16(4), 99–114. https://doi.org/10.22630/PRS.2016.16.4.103

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